Insight for school caterers – food inflation forecast

The cost of food has undeniably increased and will continue to do so. Food products were among the top 3 contributors to the annual rates of output and input inflation.  As well as energy, food is a significant driver of the ONS Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure.  Versus the previous 12 months, CPI reached 9.1% in May 2022.

Oliver Hall, MD of food procurement experts allmanhall, forecasts that “this looks set to rise further as the input prices continue to be higher and these are yet to flow through to CPI.”

According to a recent Institute for Grocery Distribution (IGD) report, UK Food inflation is forecasted to peak at 15% by the end of the autumn (Michaelmas) term.

“If correct, this would be even higher than the inflation seen in 2007-08. The strongest inflation pressure is expected to come from meat, cereal products, dairy and produce.”  IGD 2022

A recent Reuters article went on to report that Citi Bank has forecasted:

“British food price inflation looks on course to hit 20% in the first quarter of next year.”

 And Citi economist, Benjamin Nabarro recently wrote in a note to clients:

 “Food inflation overshot our forecasts. We now expect price growth here to peak at a little over 20% in Q1 2023, with producer price inflation here continuing to accelerate…”

 allmanhall, as food procurement experts, are continuously tracking Produce Input and Output Prices as well as monitoring raw food commodity and ingredient traded prices, currency rates. They use this insight and analysis to support negotiations on behalf of school clients. You can find allmanhall’s latest market analysis reports here.

The Producer Input and Output Prices are currently higher than the ONS CPI inflation figure. As leading indicators, the inflation levels of these Producers Prices will continue to flow through into CPI inflation in the short term.  Once they start to soften and are lower than CPI, general food inflation can be expected to start reducing. 

 Now more than ever expert and experienced food procurement support is an essential service required by school catering teams. Why not contact allmanhall today to see how they can help you?

Here is a taster of what very satisfied allmanhall food procurement clients have to say:

“The more this goes on, the more I feel we made the right decision to move to allmanhall or we’d be trying to negotiate it all ourselves which would be impossible.”

“We regard the allmanhall team as absolute experts in their field… proactive in managing price increases and even decreases, and extremely responsive when needed. Nothing is too much trouble… a truly essential service… a critical partner without whom we could not achieve the support or savings we see today.”

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